Jan 1/2017

I am wrong a lot so please take this into consideration
when viewing my predictions.

1- Bitcoin   ***CERTAINTY 30%
    bitcoin price currently USD 1,000.00 will go up big time this
year. Should surpass all time high in January and will hit
between $USD 3,000 at the low end and and $USD 12,000.00 on
the high end.  bitcoin is entering the perfect storm of currency wars
where every country is trying to devalue their fiat currencies (backed
by nothing) and all losing purchasing power. Public slowly waking
up to the fact that paper promises are worthless. RISK is that China
closes exchanges or severely curtails their operations

2- Precious Metals   CERTAINTY 20 %
    Silver will be the star in this category. These markets are manipulated
with ''paper silver'' trading in New York at about $16 currently. buying
physical silver looks to be a big winner this year and I expect at least
$50 to $100 this year. A depleting resource that has many commercial
uses unlike Gold.
    Gold harder to figure as some countries are going to make it illegal to hold
and/or buy. I do not rule out confiscation in some countries. Although the
gold mining stocks will do well at first I think all countries will either
nationalize these companies or more likely in western countries impose
large taxes claiming to discourage ''windfall'' profits of 'speculators' ... The
price of physical gold held outside the system over $2000 before year end.

3- DONALD TRUMP      CERTAINTY 20%
is going to turn out to be a very good president. Of course
compared to the last two decades it is a pretty low bar. He cannot avoid the
recession/depression which imo we are already in but he will cushion it a
bit. The spending spree governements and individuals have been on for the past half century has to be paid  and we are all going to pay the price. And 2017 will be a
preview of whats in store

4- Brexit     CERTAINTY  15 %
 .... British politicians will attempt to stop the ''leave'' movement even
though the people have spoken. The recession and a housing collapse might
scare the population of GB  but I feel the people are a lot smarter than the
conservatives give them credit for... Whether they leave or not I think that the

5- EUROPEAN UNION     CERTAINTY 10 %
...will disintegrate with Italy leading the way
and France not far behind even if Marine Le Pen is not elected


+++ CERTAINTY is the percentage I am sure that I am right

Steve Jobs has ''one more thing'' APPLE TV

Today's Apple Computer company is not the Apple of Steve Jobs'  eye. Maybe it is impossible to follow SJ with any degree of success. He was amazing. The
P.T. Barnum of Technology. But Todays Apple leadership looks desperate. They have
N O T H I N G  N E W.....Please do not tell me Apple watch. Half an idea that has not
clicked with the public and is a failure. Period.  full stop.
 Here lies Apple watch  RIP: Born: Dick Tracy, Died: Tim Cook 
 Hey, failure is ok. A great learning experience but in this case it seems like these guys got together and said '' Jeez guys the public are expecting something new we gotta pull something out of our ___  uh..... hat.
 The world is screaming for a  better TV experience to match the quality of the picture.....
Now there is something Apple could do...Years ago SJ brought out the Apple TV and said it was a hobby and it seems once again his foresight is about to pay off... That little box that you attach to your hi def TV is going to change your viewing....  it allows the creators of content to sell directly to the customer, bypassing networks and cable rentiers. NO more bundling...just pay for the shows you want or the networks (like HBO and SHOWTIME and NETFLIX) No commercials, no Logos and commercial super slides on the screen to distract from the shows. And a remote that is out of the box usable without being an engineer or a teenager.
Please  Tim Cook and Apple,  finish this job...and please do not ''billboard'' your future products. Like an Apple car in 2019. Part of the Apple mystique is SURPRISE... Remember  like kids at the circus as SJ from the MACWORLD  stage said in January 2007 ... ''Oh ...just one more thing....'' as he pulled the worlds first iPhone out of his Jeans
pocket.  I was there at the Mascone Center in San Francisco in the 17th row and I can still hear the echo ...

Wisdom of Crowds Update

In 2004 a book appeared on the best selling lists titled ''The Wisdom of Crowds'' by ..James Surowiecki . The author postulates that the aggregation of information is more accurate than by the individual or even expert. Furthermore he sites many examples and case studies. Fascinating and subsequently many more examples have come to light. Here is one typical example

https://youtu.be/iOucwX7Z1HU

Pretty cool eh? and there are hundreds of other examples.It is interesting but impossible to take advantage of this knowledge even with the internet at our disposal..
Would it be useful to know who will be the next President or Prime minister
or the price of Apple stock at the end of the year? Sure!! But there are huge obsticles
to use this crowd wisdom in a pragmatic manner.....
..           .UNTIL NOW....
Enter Bitcoin and the Blockchain and DECENTRALIZATION and AUGUR

Historically, prediction markets have fallen short due to dated jurisdictional regulation, lack of volume due to limited payment options, a paltry number of markets, and sometimes even paying out the wrong people!

The root of these problems stems from centralization — an issue solved by blockchain technology. AUGUR'S prediction markets eliminate counterparty risks, centralized servers, and create a global market by employing cryptocurrencies including bitcoin, ether, and stable cryptocurrencies. All funds are stored in smart contracts, and no one can steal the money

That's right...you can enter your own questions and bet money against the rest of the world on the outcome on this decentralized network...The applications are almost limitless and you can participate and/or observe.

here is a link to AUGUR..

http://www.augur.net

Really bends the mind on a quiet Sunday

Don't duck Donald

Gonna watch the U.S presidential debates? NO? Hold on a sec. Because if early polls are any indication Donald Trump will will participate with verbiage that we never get to hear from politicians whose only practice is to say things that will not offend any one or any group...Trump is the opposite ... he irritates everyone...he is the Don Rickles of politics.

Here is a preview of what you can expect....

On Obama
'' worst president ever''...
On Obama's golf
 ''If he’d like to play, that’s fine. In fact, I’d love for him to leave early and play. That’d be a very good thing,”

On former Texas Gov. and GOP aspirant Rick Perry
''He should be forced to take an IQ test before being allowed to enter the GOP debate.He's doing very poorly in the polls. He put on glasses so people will think he's smart. And it just doesn't work! ''

On Senator Bernie Sanders also a presidential hopeful
'[Sanders] knows the country is ripped off. And I know the country is being ripped off, The difference is that I can do something about it and he can’t. He’ll never be able to negotiate with China.”

on Hillary Clinton
 “Hillary Clinton was the worst secretary of State in the history of the United States," and this tweet:  ''If  Hillary Clinton can’t satisfy her husband what makes her think she can satisfy America?” 

I do not know about you but I this is a must watch tv for me

Donald Trump leads in New Hampshire with 21% support of potential Republican voters, according to NBC News/Marist latest polls. Jeb Bush has 14%, and Scott Walker 12% in New Hampshire

Catching up

Wow ...a lot can happen between blogs... last entry was over a year ago...One of the great things about writing is to look back to see what you were thinking or amused or entertained by.... and on reflection I have just gotten older not smarter... so why bother
blogging?  A lady friend asked me to talk with her 22 year old son about his future
and (I presume) advise him.. This is not the first time I have been asked to talk to young
people on what to do because I suppose I have had moderate success in life... which means 1 success for every 10 failures. Problem with that is I have nothing to offer except my own history. So all I now know is what made me happy. Steve Jobs in his commencement at Stanford* had the best stuff..'' Do what you love''  O God is he
ever right... Forget about the money...it will come but to chase money for its own
sake is folly. In the long road I have travelled I have never met a rich person who
was happy because of their wealth. NOT ONE!!!  And I have met and know a lot of
them..... What seems to make them happy is friends, family and the enjoyment of free stuff like a warm day in spring, children playing, sunrises, sunsets, having a passion
for anything, Little things like being asked a question because someone respects your
opinion, asking a question because you are in the presence of someone whose opinion
or knowledge you respect, breathing in mountain air, a really good dinner party for
6 or 8, a laugh anytime over anything.
So what to advise a young person to do...The only common denominator I can think of
is TRAVEL. Go anywhere in the world. By yourself. just have enough money to
get by...sleep in hostels...work if you can any job no matter how menial .... You will
learn more in 1 year travelling than 4 years at any University. And it will be fun and
tremendously useful....do not put it off till you are older....You are young and free
from most responsibilities and your mind is (hopefully) still open.

22 million views of SJ at Stanford ...great way to spend 15 minutes
* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UF8uR6Z6KLc

Put me in Charge

Got this from the Waco Times. U.S centric but applies to the west
written by a 21 year old woman----Snipus

Put Me In Charge...

Put me in charge of food stamps. I’d get rid of Lone Star cards; no cash for Ding Dongs or Ho Ho’s, just money for 50-pound bags of rice and beans, blocks of cheese and all the powdered milk you can haul away. If you want steak and frozen pizza, then get a job.

Put me in charge of Medicaid. The first thing I’d do is to get women Norplant birth control implants or tubal ligations. Then, we’ll test recipients for drugs, alcohol, and nicotine. If you want to reproduce or use drugs, alcohol, or smoke, then get a job.

Put me in charge of government housing. Ever live in a military barracks? You will maintain our property in a clean and good state of repair. Your home” will be subject to inspections anytime and possessions will be inventoried. If you want a plasma TV or Xbox 360, then get a job and your own place.

In addition, you will either present a check stub from a job each week or you will report to a “government” job. It may be cleaning the roadways of trash, painting and repairing public housing, whatever we find for you. We will sell your 22 inch rims and low profile tires and your blasting stereo and speakers and put that money toward the “common good..”

Before you write that I’ve violated someone’s rights, realize that all of the above is voluntary. If you want our money, accept our rules.Before you say that this would be “demeaning” and ruin their “self esteem,” consider that it wasn’t that long ago that taking someone else’s money for doing absolutely nothing was demeaning and lowered self esteem.

If we are expected to pay for other people’s mistakes we should at least attempt to make them learn from their bad choices. The current system rewards them for continuing to make bad choices.

put these on your New Years resolution lists

Lets permanently say goodbye to these very annoying terms


"Awesome''  usually uttered by some mindless young person who should
not be allowed to become and old person. A supernova is awesome. Having
your peanut butter and jelly bread land right side up is not.

''At the end of the day'' I would have cut my wrists at the beginning
of the day if I knew I would hear this meaningless phrase again

''The bottom line''  used to be a description of profit or loss
on a financial statement.  Now it is being used by people
who got punched in the nose for using ''at the end of the day''

''Facetime'' Apple communication software is excused but not
the doorknobs who feel ''Lets meet'' is too ambiguous ...

and while we are at it here is a brief description of the meaning
of some economic terms that are overused by popular media

''Fiscal Cliff''  This is Wiley E Cayote's destination after learning
that his Visa card is no longer accepted by Acme Explosives ltd.

''Debt Ceiling''  is the original retractable roof for politicians to ensure
they can keep spending other peoples money

''Quantitive Easing''  Money printing

''Revenues''  Taxes

''S&P"  Standard and Poor which describes formerly Exceptional & Rich
before they bought Facebook stock